As philanthropy navigates an increasingly uncertain landscape, what are tools that go beyond short-term solutions and help mitigate long-term challenges? The Becoming Futures Ready: How Philanthropy Can Leverage Strategic Foresight for Democracy toolkit seeks to answer that question. Developed by the Democracy Funders Network (DFN) as part of its Better Futures Project, the toolkit provides philanthropic organizations with methods for incorporating strategic foresight in their work. 

Authored by Suzette Brooks Masters, Maya Ingram, and Hillary Hooke, the toolkit is designed to build foresight capacity among democracy funders–helping them look beyond short-term electoral cycles and focus on anticipating future developments that may impact democratic systems. It introduces foresight methodologies, such as scenario planning and horizon scanning, that allow funders to explore a range of potential future scenarios that could impact democracy in the long-term. 

Screenshot of the toolkit, Becoming Futures-Ready: How Philanthropy Can Leverage Strategic Foresight For Democracy, published on Democracy Funders Network

Understanding Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future, but rather about preparing for multiple possible futures by identifying trends, disruptions, and critical uncertainties. Foresight can help philanthropy move beyond the immediate pressures of electoral cycles, and focus on underlying challenges.

Approaches for Futures Thinking

The toolkit highlights several foresight methodologies, presented in the order they appear, that can be applied to philanthropy:

1. Scenario Planning: This method involves envisioning a range of future scenarios. This includes assessing how actors such as governments, communities, and civil society might respond to low probability, high impact events. For democracy funders, this could mean exploring the implications of political polarization or shifts in voting patterns in future elections.

2. Wind-Tunneling: Stress-testing organizational strategies against alternative future scenarios can help organizations understand the strengths and weaknesses of their approaches, allowing them to consider how they might adapt to unexpected changes.

3. Horizon Scanning: By scanning the horizon for weak signals of change, philanthropy can stay ahead of emerging trends that may impact democratic processes. This includes monitoring advancements in technology or shifts in public opinion that could influence governance structures.

4. Three Horizons: This method explores opportunities for systems change, innovation, and transformation across three distinct timeframes: short-term (Horizon 1), medium-term (Horizon 2, a transitional period), and long-term (Horizon 3, where transformative changes come to fruition).

5. Backcasting: This method involves starting with a desired future scenario and working backwards to identify the steps needed to reach that goal–creating a path toward a preferred future state.

6. Ethnographic Foresight: This method focuses on identifying early adopters and visionaries who are exploring new ideas and practices outside the mainstream. These individuals are often ahead of others in adapting to changes.

Institutionalizing Futures Thinking

To realize the full potential of foresight, philanthropy must incorporate foresight within foundations’ culture; this involves creating an environment where foresight is a continuous practice, rather than a one-off project. Building internal capacity through training and incorporating foresight into strategic planning processes can be valuable. For example, the Omidyar Network’s ‘Exploration and Future Sensing Unit' and Democracy Fund’s Foresight and Futures team show how institutions can incorporate futures thinking into their operations and grantmaking strategies.

Collaborative Futures Thinking

Beyond internal practices, philanthropy can also benefit from engaging in external collaborations. Networks of funders can share insights, tools, and strategies, in efforts to address challenges and explore potential solutions for democratic institutions. Initiatives such as Philea’s Futures Philanthropy and Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors’ Futures and Foresight Initiative demonstrate how collaboration can contribute to the application of foresight across the sector. 

The Role of Foresight in Grantmaking Processes

While foresight, as a practice, has been in use for several decades, there is an opportunity to apply it in novel ways throughout the grantmaking process. Long-term, flexible funding models can provide grantees with the opportunity to adjust and explore new approaches in response to shifting political and social landscapes. Grantmakers can also support their grantees in using foresight tools, such as scenario planning and horizon scanning, in their work. Incorporating foresight into funding decisions requires rethinking evaluation metrics. Traditional short-term evaluation methods may not capture the broader, long-term impact of a foresight-driven approach. Therefore, philanthropy may need to adopt adaptive metrics that consider the dynamic nature of social and political change.

A Vision for the Future

Strategic foresight provides a framework for philanthropy to navigate uncertainty and consider the long-term implications for democracy. By adopting foresight methodologies, embedding them into organizational cultures, and fostering collaboration across the sector, philanthropy can better address challenges such as political polarization, emerging technologies, and shifts in public opinion that could affect democratic processes. For the DATA4Philanthropy network, the key takeaway is to think beyond the present and embrace the complexity of the future, knowing that through foresight, we can turn uncertainty into actionable strategies.

The full toolkit can be found here.

Further Reading and Resources

For those interested in exploring the use of futures thinking and foresight methodologies further, we recommend the Data Innovation Primer: Using Futures Studies in the Grant Making Process. This primer offers an introduction to integrating futures studies into the philanthropic decision-making process. It covers methods such as systems mapping, horizon scanning, and strategic gaming, and explores how these tools can help philanthropies address emerging challenges and plan for long-term strategies. 

You can access the full primer here.

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